photo credit: andrewrennie
This column first appeared in The Bookseller on 20.01.10

Book sales in Ireland in 2009 fell by 5%, according to Nielsen BookScan’s measure of the Irish Consumer Market. Not a bad result in this environment, and still comfortably above 2007 levels.

However, these resolute sales mask some worrying trends that look likely to continue in 2010. The first of these is that Irish publishers are under-performing the overall market. There are some exceptions to this trend, but Gill & Macmillan was down almost 10%, O’Brien down 20%, Mercier down more than 12% and the likes of Maverick and Merlin down even more. By contrast, while Transworld Ireland suffered a decline in sales of just under 5%, in line with the market, both Penguin Ireland with a gain of more than 12% and Hachette Ireland with an increase of just under 4% outperformed the market.

The industry experienced a number of redundancies in 2009 and if Irish companies continue to under-perform in this fashion, then we should expect that to continue. It might even be the case that one of the smaller market players may be forced out of business or in the case of very small publishers, to simply stop publishing.

The second trend is that wider economic weakness will impact on booksellers in 2010. Irish consumers will curtail their spending even further in 2010. They are faced with the double fear of higher taxes and less stable employment.

Fortunately, the perception that books in Ireland are expensive relative to prices in other jurisdictions is at least dissipating, but even that is at the cost to retailers of the favourable sterling/euro rate. The fall in the value of the sterling has wiped out the attractive price differential for books, leaving the margins of booksellers pressured.

Given the legacy lease costs that some retailers have to cope with and the pressure on consumer spending, bookshops will be feeling the pressure in 2010. That said, a flurry of new stores opened in 2009 and seem to be trading rather well. A more long-term trend is the shift towards digital retailing and e-books. Amazon is now offering its Super Saver shipping deal to Irish customers, enabling anyone spending more than £25 to ship for free, while the Book Depository offers free delivery to Ireland (as it does elsewhere).

Although Kindle doesn’t seem to have made a significant impact in 2009, despite its availability since October, there is every reason to believe that Ireland will see the arrival of larger numbers of the Kindle and its e-reader rivals in 2010, suggesting that digital preparedness (not something our native publishers are noted for) will be important.

While most publishers and retailers will be happy to see the back of 2009, 2010 offers nothing more than a breathing space and there is the strong possibility that if wider economic trends do not improve, it may not even offer that.